Calculating Pot Odds - The Rule Of Four
March 20, 2007 by ozpoker
Filed under Poker Strategy
Calculating Pot Odds -The Rule Of 4
The ability to calculate pot odds is a necessary part of any poker players game. Knowing these odds is important because it gives you an idea when you are in a good or bad situation and gives you next move some direction. For every potential action (check, fold, call, raise) at every point in a game of poker, the correct strategy is influenced by the pot odds facing the player. The lower the pot odds facing a call, the more likely it is that folding will be the correct play, and the higher the pot odds facing a call, the more likely it is that calling is the correct play
Before we have any meaningful discussion about pot odds,you first need to understand the concept of “Outs”. In poker your “Outs” are the unseen cards that will complete or improve your hand to make it the winning hand. Each additional card or “Out” will improve your percentage of surviving the hand and coming out a winner.
“Pot Odds” are as easy as computing outs. You compare your outs or your chance of winning to the size of the pot. If your chance of winning is significantly better than the ratio of the pot size to a bet, then you have good pot odds. If it’s lower, then you have bad pot odds.
You need to know these when you’ve got a drawing hand, such as a 4 cards to a flush or and inside straight, but it’s not a bad idea to know them for every hand. An easy way of calculating approximate percentage odds is to use the rule of 4.
The Rule Of 4
An Example
You are holding KJ of hearts and the flop comes 6h, 9h, Ac.
You are holding two hearts and with the two on the board you need just one more to make your flush and you’d have to think, win the hand.
There are nine hearts left in the deck. You can’t assume any are in your opponents hole cards so your approximate odds are 36% of hitting your hand. Roughly 1 in 3.
Another Example
You have made a pair of Kings on the flop. The turn doesn’t help. Your chance of making trips on the river is 2 (the two remaining Kings in the deck) times 2 = 4%. That means one time in 25 you’ll make your hand!
And Another
You have 67 of hearts. The flop gives you the 5h, 8h and As - that’s an up-and-down straight draw AND a four flush! How many outs do you have? Well, to make a straight, you have 8 outs (all the 4’s and all the 9’s). To make a flush, you have 9 outs (the 9 remaining hearts). However, one of the 4’s is a heart and one of the 9’s is a heart. Therefore, your outs are 8+9-2 or 15 outs. Your chances of making a straight OR a flush OR a straight flush (in other words, the chances of improving your hand) are 15 times 4 or 60%. You’re a slight favourite to improve here.
Yet Another
You have Big Slick (AK) and the flop gives you J 10 6 rainbow (rainbow=all different suits). The turn falls 2. How many outs do you have? Well, to make top pair you have 6 outs (the remaining A’s and K’s) and to make your straight you have 4 outs (all the Q’s). Therefore your chances are 6+4=10 times 2 = 20% or you’ll make your hand one time in five. Importantly here you are only an 8% chance to hit your gutshot straight and were only a 16% chance prior to the turn. Clearly demonstrating why constantly chasing gutshot’s will see you in the poor house.
This method is extremely quick and easy to learn and can help you make better decisions when in a hand.
For example if you’re roughly a 36% chance to make your flush in example one and you’re getting 3/1 on your money to call a bet then you are getting the correct odds to call. If however you opponent has overbet the pot and you’re only getting say 6/4 on your money to call then you have a hard decision. The odds he is expecting you to take are not reflective of your odds of making and presumably winning the hand.
Obviously the converse is true - If you think you have a good read on your opponent and you put them on a drawing hand, then you can adjust your bet accordingly to make it unprofitable or unwise for them to call you.
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